On Buehrle, no-hitters, the HOF and the shared collective experience

You'd grip your head too if it happened to you. Photo from this site.

The great thing about baseball is that it has more “stop what you’re doing and get to a TV/radio/computer” moments than the rest of the major sports combined.

A quarterback is approaching the record for yardage or touchdowns in a single game? I care only if he’s on my fantasy team, or playing against it. I’d say I’d drop everything to watch someone threaten Wilt Chamberlain’s record of 100 points in an NBA game, but only Kobe Bryant has come within 20 points of the mark and most teams these days have a hard enough time scoring 100 on their own, so I’m not too worried about that mark getting threatened. I don’t know much about hockey, but your good friend and mine Joe Haggerty says a hat trick is hockey’s version of the collective experience.

Pretty cool, I imagine, but I can’t imagine learning that a player has already collected two goals and doing what I did yesterday afternoon upon hearing that White Sox ace Mark Buehrle had thrown eight perfect innings against the Rays. I couldn’t find it on TV fast enough, couldn’t text my wife fast enough, couldn’t log on to the Internet fast enough so that I could track the last three outs with friends met and unmet via all sorts of social networking tools.

As you no doubt know by now, Buehrle—aided by a truly awesome, home run-saving catch by defensive replacement DeWayne Wise—set the Rays down in order in the ninth to complete the 18th perfect game in history and become just the 28th pitcher with at least two no-hitters to his credit.

I’ll halt whatever it is I’m doing if I hear someone has three-quarters of the cycle or has hit three or four homers in a game, but no-hitters have always been my favorite singular baseball accomplishment. The sheer randomness of the feat—Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens and Tom Glavine, the three active 300-game winners in baseball at the end of 2007, have fewer career no-hitters than Clay Buchholz—neatly summarizes the beauty of baseball and how every trip to the ballpark brings with it the possibility of history.

In addition, the no-hitter or perfect game is the one individual feat in sports in which the accomplisher seems as touched and moved by the moment as those watching it. Think Buchholz letting himself go limp in Jason Varitek’s arms after his no-hitter nearly two years ago, or David Wells leaping in the air repeatedly as the 27th out of his perfect game fell harmlessly into Paul O’Neill’s glove in 1998.

Or think of my all-time favorite sports shot: David Cone, his perfect game officially in the books 10 years and six days ago, putting his hands on his head, falling to his knees and into the arms of catcher Joe Girardi, as if the enormity of the accomplishment has left him unable to stand.

Buehrle did a pretty good approximation of Cone immediately after the final out yesterday, albeit without the quivering knees, and his pursuit of perfection was particularly interesting to me because he was one of the players whom I spoke to for perhaps my favorite story I penned while at Ye Olde Employer, a feature from late in the 2007 season about the unpredictability of no-hitters and the poignancy of one-hitters such as the one Curt Schilling authored two months before Buchholz threw his no-no.

Buehrle was a few months removed from his first career no-no when we spoke and was self-effacing about his place in history, noting that pitchers with better pedigree and better arsenals have never thrown no-hitters while a guy like himself who regularly ranks among the league leaders in hits allowed (three times in the last four years) makes history.

But a second no-hitter will significantly improve the perception of Buehrle, a textbook crafty southpaw who is annually the White Sox’ Opening Day starter yet rarely ranks first on the staff in terms of pure stuff. Two no-hitters and a decade of impressive consistency means it’s no longer laughable to mention Buehrle and Hall of Fame in the same sentence, as a friend of mine did yesterday when he sent over Buerhle’s numbers through his age-29 season (Buehrle turned 30 in March):

122-87, 3.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 1083 K/1847.2 IP, 2.55 K/BB, 23 CG, 7 SHO, 268 starts

Those don’t scream no-doubt Hall of Fame track, but as someone who has pitched in the heart of the Steroid Era, Buehrle should be judged differently than his predecessors. And his numbers are quite impressive in the context of the times: Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan noted earlier this month that Buehrle’s career ERA is nearly 25 percent better than the AL average.

As noted in June, when I identified Buehrle as one of a handful of pitchers with a shot at approaching 300 wins, it’s borderline foolish to try and project another decade of good health and fortune for any pitcher. But Buehrle has never been on the disabled list, has been perhaps the most durable pitcher in the American League the last eight seasons and is still only 30, so it seems as if he’s got as good a shot at the milestone—and sure-fire entrance into Cooperstown—as anybody.

If, of course, he wants it. Buehrle told Passan that he expects to retire after his contract runs out following the 2011 season in order to watch his kids grow up. Buehrle left himself plenty of room to change his mind, but he and those around him also painted a pretty compelling picture of an uncomplicated guy who just might walk away at the top of his game and leave millions and millions on the table.

Here’s hoping he doesn’t. Now that Jim Rice is headed for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame—more on that this weekend, as we’ll be in Cooperstown, how’s that for a segue—we need guys like Buehrle who can serve as the subjects for juicy is-he-or-isn’t-he debates.

At the very least, Buehrle should stick around as long as possible because baseball can use a player like him, one who is the poster boy for the unpredictability of the game, someone who can inspire a nation of fans to stop what they’re doing and head to the nearest TV, radio or computer and share in a moment that inspires goose bumps even in the middle of the summer.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

Wakefield and Beckett! Ready your breakfast and eat hearty!

Tim Wakefield and/or Josh Beckett will have plenty of reason to bellow if they take down enough big league batters to approach or reach 300 wins. Photo from this site.

When he signed Tim Wakefield in the spring of 1995, Dan Duquette had no idea he was plucking off the scrap heap the man who would likely someday become the Red Sox’ all-time winningest pitcher. But Wakefield should surpass both Cy Young and Roger Clemens as the top winner in franchise history at some point next season, and his success over the last 15 seasons—but particularly this year, when Wakefield earned his first trip to the All-Star Game—had Duquette in an understandably gushy mood when Joe Haggerty caught up with him this week.

Duquette recalled how Phil Niekro, the Hall of Fame knuckleballer, told Wakefield shortly after he signed with the Sox that if he could harness and master the pitch, he could pitch until he turned 50. At that point, Haggerty points out, Wakefield would have Hall of Fame-caliber numbers.

Of course, possessing the potential to pitch until 50 and actually doing so are two different things, to which Haggerty also alludes. Hall of Fame knuckleballer Hoyt Wilhelm retired weeks before his 50th birthday in 1972. Niekro retired at 48 and fellow knuckleballer Charlie Hough retired at 46 due to physical issues (Niekro felt he could no longer cover first and Hough needed a hip replacement). Wakefield, of course, has endured his own increasingly frequent ailments since he turned 40.

For the sake of this blog entry, let’s say Wakefield wins one of his two or three starts before his 43rd birthday Aug. 2. That would give him 91 wins since his 36th birthday. To maintain that pace for another seven years would mean he ages in more graceful fashion than either Niekro (78 wins after turning 43) and Hough (30 wins after turning 43), yet still leave him at “only” 283 as he turns 50.

And to win another 17 games to reach the magical, Cooperstown-worthy 300-win mark would rank as one of the most remarkable feats in baseball history, since no pitcher has ever won a single game after his 50th birthday. Jack Quinn came closest, recording his final big league victory at 49.

All of which is to say that Wakefield’s probably not going to reach 300 wins. It’s hard to say any active player has a good shot at 300 wins (though Jamie Moyer is at 255 after he one-hit the Marlins over seven innings last night), but the more I think about it, the more I think Josh Beckett has a pretty interesting shot at it.

Beckett won his 100th career game Sunday at the age of 29, which puts him three years ahead of Johnson and in the same ballpark as recent 300-game winners Greg Maddux (won his 100th game at age 27), Roger Clemens (won his 100th game at age 27) and Tom Glavine (won his 100th game at age 28).

It also means he compares quite favorably to the likes of Moyer (won his 100th game at age 35), Wakefield (won his 100th game at age 36), David Wells (won his 100th game at age 34) and Curt Schilling (won his 100th game at age 33), all of whom were far better in their 30s and 40s than in their 20s.

Beckett is in good physical condition, has avoided the surgeon’s knife—though he’s had his share of injury scares—and seems like the type of player who should remain competitive and inspired well into his 30s. It’ll be pretty fascinating if Beckett is being discussed as the next legitimate candidate to join the 300-win club seven or eight years from now—but, admittedly, not nearly as fascinating as if Wakefield is still in the discussion, too.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

America digs the long ball, not a mulleted 299-game winner

Hey! We've got a 299-game winner over here! (Or: All business in the front, 299 wins in the back.) Photo from this site.

Randy Johnson’s first attempt at becoming the 24th 300-game winner was rained out after a four-hour delay last night. He’ll make his second first attempt at the milestone this afternoon in the first game of a doubleheader in Washington, which is a lot like Pearl Jam playing the second stage at Lollapalooza (which, much to my surprise, still exists, albeit only in a three-day format in Chicago).

Yet Johnson going for his 300th win in an afterthought afternoon game played in front of what will almost surely be a sparse crowd makes a whole lot of sense considering America’s response to Johnson’s pursuit has been a giant yawn. No round-the-clock coverage on ESPN (of course, things might be different if Johnson threw a football or shot a basketball), nor is a big deal being made of the pursuit on any of the major sports and news sites.

How is this possible? The countdown to 300 should be one of reverential anticipation, one in line with its status as baseball’s ultimate career achievement.

Is Johnson accomplishing the feat in anonymity because of his prickly personality and journeyman-like travels? Yahoo!’s Tim Brown had a hard time finding an ex-teammate in Arizona who was excited over Johnson’s imminent entry into the 300-win club. But Johnson surely isn’t the first 300-game winner to rub teammates the wrong way, nor will he be the first to collect his 300th win with a team with whom he’s not easily identified.

Phil Niekro won his 300th game for the Yankees, for whom he pitched two seasons after 20 years with the Braves. Don Sutton won his 300th game for the Angels, the fourth team he played for in a seven-year span after he spent the first 15 years of his career with the Dodgers. Tom Seaver won his 300th game for the White Sox, for whom he pitched only 2 ½ seasons. Braves legend Tom Glavine won his 300th game for the Mets, with whom he always seemed an odd fit despite five seasons in Queens. And you could probably win a lot of bar bets armed with the knowledge that Gaylord Perry won his 300th game with the Mariners, his seventh big league team and a club for whom he won a grand total of 13 games.

But I also don’t recall a whole lot of hype surrounding Glavine and Greg Maddux when they approached 300 (there was plenty of buildup for Roger Clemens’ 300th win in 2003, but if there’s anything that guy knows how to do, it’s make a scene).

Is this more proof that, to paraphrase the awesome ‘90s shoe commercial featuring Glavine and Maddux, that fans dig the long ball? But even if that’s the case, wouldn’t the explosion in offense that has lessened the luster of 500 homers also increase the prestige of 300 wins?

The 500-homer club has nearly doubled—from 13 to 24—over the last 10 years, though it could be a while before it expands again. Carlos Delgado is 27 homers away but out for months after hip surgery, while Chipper Jones would still be 15 homers shy of 500 at the end of his age-39 season in 2011 even if he hits as many homers (77) from 2009-11 as he did from 2006-08. The next member of the 500-homer club is probably Albert Pujols, who, at 335, should be more than halfway to Barry Bonds by the time he turns 31 in 2011. (If, of course, you believe that Pujols was really born in 1980)

But after Johnson, we’re almost certainly looking at a decade or more before the next 300-game winner joins the club. Nobody else is knocking on the door of 300, unless you count Jamie Moyer, and since he’s 50 wins away at age 46, you probably shouldn’t, my post from last month excepted.

After Johnson and Moyer, only two active players have as many as 200 wins, and there is no way Andy Pettitte (220) and John Smoltz (210) stick around long enough to get to 300. To give you an idea of just how far off the next 300-game winner is, realize that the third-winningest active pitcher is Tim Wakefield with 184. Even if he wins 17 games this year, bringing his career total to 195, he’d have to average 14 wins a season for another eight years—through his age-51 year—to get to 300 wins. He’s got a rubber arm, not a robotic one, folks.

With no 300-game winners on the horizon, the urge is to write that Johnson will very likely be the last of the breed. And sure, with starters throwing less than ever before and the four-man rotation not likely to return any decade soon, there’s a chance that the baseball fans of the 22nd century will look back on the opening days of the 21st century—during which four pitchers reached the 300-win mark in a span of five years—much like we do the late 19th century and early 20th century, when it wasn’t unusual for players to leg out 20 or more triples in a season. Only seven players have done that since 1950.

But history suggests those fans will be a lot less blown away by the concept of 300 wins in a career than we are by 30 triples in a season, even if the next 300-game winner is a decade or more away. Such a drought is not unprecedented: Grover Cleveland Alexander won his 300th game in 1924, after which only three players—Lefty Grove in 1941, Warren Spahn in 1961 and Early Wynn in 1963—reached the mark in the next 57 years.

Perry, though, began a rush of 300-game winners when he joined the club in 1982. Johnson will be the 10th pitcher to reach 300 wins in the last 27 years. There were only nine 300-game winners between 1888 and 1915, way back when men were men, pitchers started and completed 154 games a year and threw until their arms fell off, at which point they taught themselves to pitch with their other arm.

Johnson will also be the fourth pitcher to spend his entire career in a five-man rotation to reach 300 wins, indicating it’s not inconceivable the present-day aces have a better shot than we might believe at joining the club. Here’s four possibilities to follow in the footsteps of Johnson, Glavine, Maddux and Clemens as 300-game winners in a five-man era:

—Roy Halladay, 140 wins. Won 113 games from 2002-08. If he maintained that pace from 2009-15, he’d be at 244 wins at age 38. Halladay would have to average 17 wins per season into his age-42 season in 2019 in order to win 300.

—CC Sabathia, 122 wins. Won 117 games from 2001-08. If he maintained that pace from 2009-16, he’d be at 234 wins at age 36. Sabathia would have to average 15 wins a season for the next 12-plus seasons—taking him into his age-41 season in 2021—in order to win 300.

—Mark Buehrle, 128 wins. Won 118 games from 2001-08. If he maintained that pace from 2009-16, he'd be at 240 wins at age 37. Buehrle would have to average 15 wins a season for the next 12-plus seasons—taking him through his 42nd birthday in 2022—in order to win 300.

—Johan Santana, 116 wins. Won 98 games from 2003-08. If he maintained that pace from 2009-14, he would be at 207 wins at age 35. He’d have to average 17 wins a season for the next 11-plus seasons—taking him through his 41st birthday in 2020—in order to win 300.

Of course, all caveats apply about how it’s folly to try and project the performance of pitchers because there’s just so much that can go wrong. A few years ago, I thought Mark Mulder might have been the best young candidate for 300 wins. He won 97 games in his first six seasons, at which point he was just 28. But he’s won just six games since then thanks to multiple shoulder injuries that will likely end his career. June 15 will be the third anniversary of his most recent victory.

It’s also impossible to project who will beat the odds and be a much better pitcher in his 30s than in his 20s. Do you think anyone foresaw 300 wins for Johnson on Sept. 10, 1993, when he turned 30 with all of 64 wins to his credit?

Maybe Josh Beckett, who won his 95th game last night and is 11 months away from his 30th birthday, is as brilliant in his 30s as Curt Schilling, who won 155 games during that decade, and is within 40 wins by his 40th birthday in 2020.

Or perhaps the next 300-game winner is someone who isn’t yet eligible for arbitration (Tim Lincecum?). Maybe he’s someone who still can’t legally buy a beer (Stephen Strasburg?). Or maybe he hasn’t even hit puberty yet (a Little Leaguer somewhere?).

He’s probably out there, somewhere. But it’s going to be a long time before he becomes the 25th member of the 300-win club. Maybe by then we’ll be able to muster up the anticipation missing from Johnson’s pursuit.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

I’m beginning to think Jamie Moyer’s not going to get to 300 wins

Jamie Moyer regales reporters with tales of playing baseball without a glove, walking uphill both ways to a doubleheader and World Series games that ended before sunset. Photo from this site.

I can’t imagine anybody thought Jamie Moyer was beginning one of the most remarkable transformations in recent memory during his lone season in Boston in 1996, when he went 7-1 with a 4.50 ERA and uninspiring peripheral numbers (a 50/27 K/BB ratio and a 1.53 WHIP) in 23 games as a swingman for the Red Sox.

Moyer was dealt at the trading deadline to the Mariners, who became his sixth big league team. It took another decade for him to add a seventh team to his resume. Moyer went 180-108 with a 4.04 ERA from his first pitch with the Mariners through the 2008 season, when the 45-year-old Moyer won his first World Series ring with the Phillies and was subsequently rewarded with a two-year contract that would take him to the edge of his 48th birthday.

Moyer pitched 160 innings just three times prior to age 34 but has done it 11 times in the last 12 seasons (and missed by six innings in 2000). He won a career-high 13 games in 1996, a total he has matched or exceeded 10 times since—including in 2001 and 2003, when he won 20 and 21 games, respectively. He’s done it all with a variety of slop that features a fastball that couldn’t get pulled over on the Mass Pike.

Alas, Moyer’s magician act may be nearing its conclusion, if the first seven starts of this season are any indication. Moyer gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 innings last night in a loss to the Dodgers as his ERA soared to 8.15. Let’s not count Moyer out yet—I’m sure he was dismissed as done when he posted a 5.49 ERA in 2000 and a 5.21 ERA in 2004—but each eyesore of a start makes it less likely he’ll create one helluva Hall of Fame debate.

Laugh if you must, and I realize Moyer has none of the characteristics of a Hall of Famer. He’s never been the best in his league at any time—he’s been named to one All-Star team and has never finished higher than fourth in the Cy Young balloting—and will almost surely fall well shy of 3,000 strikeouts. And all the caveats apply about how Moyer is in nearly unprecedented territory as a guy taking a regular turn in the rotation in his mid-to-late 40s and how the bottom can fall out at any moment.

But still: Moyer won 54 games in the preceding four seasons and began this year with 246 wins. Yup. You do the math.

Chances are Moyer will end up well shy of Tommy John, another soft-tosser who pitched more than a quarter-century and ended up with 287 wins, and that just like with John, nobody will spend much time bantering about Moyer’s Hall of Fame chances. But the long shot “what if” is a fun one to ponder nonetheless: How do you keep out of the Hall of Fame a guy who won 300 games during the Steroid Era, even if it took him 25 years or more to get to the mark?

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.