Repeat after me: Roy Halladay will get traded, but not to the Red Sox

Acquiring a spare part like Brian Anderson might not leave Sox fans jumping for joy, but if history is any indication, they'll have to be satisfied with it anyway once the trading deadline arrives today. Photo from this site.

The Yankees are getting hotter and the Red Sox are getting colder (sorry, but needing a late comeback today to split a series with the Athletics, who stopped trying around March 31, does not reverse the post-All-Star Break slide) as the trade deadline approaches, so the first instinct is to say the Sox have to do something, anything, to keep up with the Yankees, especially with the Phillies no longer in the running for Roy Halladay.

And don’t let J.P. Ricciardi fool you: The Blue Jays will trade Halladay within the next 24 hours. I have no sources telling me that, or anything cool and juicy like that. But Ricciardi is like that owner in your fantasy league who tells everyone you better hurry up and make him an offer for his star player because he’s got big deals on the front burner, except he’s just bluffing like crazy in hopes someone actually believes him and overpays. When the rest of the league doesn’t panic and overpay and instead makes a more reasonable offer with someone else, Ricciardi—err, the owner in your fantasy league—is forced to dump his star for less than he would have liked.

Further complicating things for Ricciardi and the Jays is the fact Halladay’s trade value will never be higher than it is right at this moment. Just look at what the Rangers got for Mark Teixeira at the 2007 deadline, a year-and-a-half before he reached free agency, and what the Braves got for him last year

But when Halladay is traded, it won’t be to the Sox, even if they’ve gone from having way too much starting pitching to not enough over the last couple weeks. And it’s precisely because the Sox have stumbled badly this month and because they need Halladay that they won’t get him.

Oh sure, there have been plenty of rumors proclaiming the Sox the frontrunners for Halladay, and chairman Tom Werner told reporters in Cooperstown Sunday that Theo Epstein was “…burning the midnight oil” as the deadline approached. Of course, Werner also said the Sox didn’t want to part with any of their top prospects, which correlates with what John Henry Twittered following the Adam LaRoche trade.

Now is it possible the Sox are just bluffing when they declare off-limits the best of their young players? Of course. But to execute a midseason blockbuster—without an unhappy superstar forcing his way out of Boston in the process—would deviate drastically from Epstein’s m.o.

Again: The Sox are the only two-time champion in baseball this decade, run by a bulletproof general manager who stood pat three years ago, when the Sox were in first place and he had nowhere near the political capital he enjoys now. He maintained the status quo even though the Yankees were pursuing a difference-making bat, Bobby Abreu, whom they acquired for almost nothing.

The Yankees are probably the team most likely to land the prize of this trade deadline, as well, especially now with Chien-Ming Wang out for the season, NL castoff Sergio Mitre serving as their fifth starter and the suddenly surging Joba Chamberlain approaching his laughably secretive innings limit. Imagine how sturdy the Yankees would look in October with a top three of Halladay, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

But Epstein was willing to absorb the short-term hit to better position the Sox for long-term success in 2006. In addition, to trade for someone like Halladay would bolster the Sox in the short-term but also leave them with precious little young pitching depth. Beyond Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Justin Masterson, the Sox don’t have any impact arms ready to move into the rotation. Junichi Tazawa was just promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket, but the rest of the Sox’ most promising pitchers are at Double-A or below. So what do the Sox do if injuries strike over the next 15 months?

That said, dealing prospects for an impact hitter would make more sense, since the Sox have bucked conventional wisdom by having more luck developing pitchers than hitters. But a deal for the Padres’ Adrian Gonzalez and/or the Indians’ Victor Martinez is a lot less risky in the winter than in July.

This already seems like a team headed for some kind of overhaul after the season. Lowell and Jason Varitek are playing less frequently. Jason Bay is playing himself right out of a long-term deal. J.D. Drew is, well, J.D. Drew. Daisuke Matsuzaka is complaining about how the Sox have treated him, which seems to be a fine way to assure that the Sox have to give the Edgar Renteria/Julio Lugo treatment to someone who doesn’t actually play shortstop. Tim Wakefield’s not going to make a start on his 43rd birthday. The Sox’ starting shortstop, whomever he is on a given day, still would not start for the majority of big league teams.

And that’s just the guys who don’t fit into the long-term plan. David Ortiz learned this week that hitting .220 may be the least of his problems. Kevin Youkilis is hitting .251 since returning from the disabled list May 20.

Most notably, Jonathan Papelbon is allergic to the 1-2-3 inning, and Jon Couture made a pretty good case Wednesday why Papelbon may not even be among the top tier of closers anymore. For all his talk about wanting to inherit the title of best closer in baseball from Mariano Rivera, Papelbon has never seemed the type to remain durable or dominant well into his 30s. What if we’ve already seen the best of Papelbon and this recent ineffectiveness is the beginning of the end? Why would the Sox deal potential heir apparent Daniel Bard for Halladay?

A lot of difficult decisions will have to be made after the season. Why begin the process in midseason and try to make all the new pieces fit on the fly—and, perhaps in the process, further reduce the playing time of the captain and his unofficial first lieutenant—instead of during six or seven weeks in Ft. Myers? Especially when the diluted nature of the AL means even the flawed Sox, who still lead the wild card race, can still make quite a run at the AL pennant or beyond?

Assuming the current division leaders all hang on, the Sox would face the Angels in the AL Division Series, which, even in the Sox’ weakened state, is like earning a bye into the AL Championship Series. Figure the Yankees beat the Tigers, even if the decidedly underdog Tigers crushed the Yankees in the 2006 ALDS and the Yankees haven’t moved beyond the first round since 2004.

In the ALCS, would you want to bet against the playoff-hardened Sox—led by the 1-2 punch of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester atop the rotation—figuring out a way to beat the Yankees, even if they did field a rotation of Halladay-Sabathia-Burnett? That’s two ex-Blue Jays who have never made a postseason start and Sabathia, who has recorded an ERA of 9.47 the last two Octobers and is 0-2 with a 5.66 ERA against the Sox and Rays this season.

For all the internal reasons why it behooves the Sox to stand pat, none is as convincing as an external one: History indicates the teams that make the biggest moves at the trade deadline are not the ones that win the World Series. (More on that tomorrow)

More than two-thirds of the way into the season, a team—to borrow the most tired phrase of the decade—is what it is. Whomever is going to win the World Series is going to do it with a core it has been establishing since April, not players it’s adding this month. So as fun as it is to wonder how good the Sox would be with Halladay, Gonzalez or Martinez, the most exciting thing to happen today will probably involve adding another former big leaguer to Pawtucket’s outfield.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

The Yankees are coming and all I can do is stifle a yawn

Moments like this against the Red Sox and Angels have been exceedingly rare for the Yankees in 2009. Photo from this site.

If it’s July, it must be time for the Yankees to make their annual run at the Red Sox. In 2005, the Yankees went 11-2 from July 2 through July 18, during which they went from six games back of the Sox to a half-game up. The Yankees promptly fell out of first place July 19 but returned there Sept. 21 and ended up winning the division by a tiebreaker over the Sox.

In 2006, the Yankees went 19-9 from July 1 through Aug. 3 to turn a four-game deficit into a one-game lead. They never relinquished first place on their way to winning the East by 10 games over the Blue Jays and 11 games over the third-place Sox.

In 2007, the Yankees went 15-4 from July 5 through July 25 to gain 5 ½ games on the Sox, but their most serious run at the Sox would occur in late September, when the Yankees twice moved within 1 ½ games before finishing second, two games back.

Last year, the Yankees won their first eight games after the All-Star Break to shave the Rays’ lead from six games to three and close within one game of the wild card-leading Sox, though the Yankees didn’t get any closer the rest of the way and finished eight games behind the Rays and six behind the Sox.

The Yankees appear to be in the midst of another red-hot post-All-Star Break run: They improved to 4-0 since THE AMERICAN LEAGUE WON THE GAME THAT COUNTS MORE THAN ALL THE REST!!!!! and tied the suddenly skidding Sox atop the AL East with a 2-1 win over the Orioles last night.

As noted in the final chapter of Fighting Words (shameless plug!), Sox players didn’t appreciate the perceived hysteria among the media masses during the Yankees’ mid-summer runs from 2005 through 2007. But you won’t find any hand-wringing here over the approaching Yankees, not with their very recent inability to sustain momentum upon earning at least a share of first place.

This is the second time this month the Yankees have, in a matter of days, made up a three-game deficit and tied the Sox for first place. On July 9, the Yankees completed a three-game sweep of the Twins while the Sox fell to the Royals. The Yankees then went west and gave up 29 runs in enduring a three-game sweep at the hands of the Angels while the Sox won three in a row against the Royals.

In addition, the Yankees began a three-game series against the Sox June 9 with a one-game lead. They were swept by the Sox by a combined score of 17-8 and went on to fall as many as five games out on June 23-24.

The Yankees’ current run is, admittedly, an impressive one fueled by pitching instead of their vaunted video game offense: They’ve won the four games despite scoring just 11 runs and have won the last three by 2-1 scores, the first time an American League team has done that since the 1987 Twins.

That Twins team went on to win the World Series, but it’s kind of difficult to take these Yankees seriously as a championship contender considering they’re 2-12 against the Sox and Angels, the top two teams in the AL. Of course, with six games left this week against the last-place Orioles and Athletics, the Yankees will have plenty of opportunity to fatten up before facing the wild card-contending Rays and the AL Central-contending White Sox next week.

Don’t be in a rush to reserve first place for the Yankees tonight, though. The Yankees’ scheduled starter tonight is Sergio Mitre, who hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2007 and posted a 5.36 ERA in five years with the Cubs and Marlins. The Sox, meanwhile, start Josh Beckett for the first time in nine days as he opposes Rangers rookie Tommy Hunter. I’d expect the tie to be broken—in favor of the Sox—by this time tomorrow morning.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

In the long run, bagging themselves plenty of homers won’t do the Yankees much good

Mindy McCready--err, Lurlene Lumpkin--is going to pen a sad song about the Yankees and Homers. Photo from this site.

Well, all that optimism over the new-look Yankees lasted all of a night. The Red Sox waxed the red-hot Yankees Tuesday night, 7-0, and then won again Wednesday, 6-5, to improve to 7-0 this season against their arch-rivals, their longest winning streak to open a season against the Yankees since way back in 1914.

Josh Beckett’s streak of consecutive 100-pitch starts ended at 10 Tuesday because he was so good—he allowed just one infield single and struck out eight in six innings—that the Sox could afford to pull him after 93 pitches. It was Beckett’s best outing against the Yankees since he tossed a five-hit shutout in the Marlins’ World Series-clinching victory in 2003, and the latest proof that the Yankees’ title drought seems likely to last at least another season.

The Yankees might have better makeup than usual and maybe even a bunch of newcomers who can handle the unrelenting pressure of New York, but none of that makes up for the fact their homer-happy brand of baseball (the Yankees lead the majors with 95 homers after going deep three times Wednesday) doesn’t usually translate well to the playoffs.

The Yankees, of all teams, should know the risks of relying on the homer, and the benefits derived from not doing so. This is likely to be the seventh time in eight seasons the Yankees rank among the top five in the majors in homers. Of course they haven’t won a World Series in that span, though they made the playoffs every year except last season (ironically, in that it’s not ironic at all, 2008 was the only season in which they fell out of the top five in homers).

Yet from 1996 through 2001, during which they ranked higher than 10th in homers just once, the Yankees won four World Series and lost another in the ninth inning of Game Seven.

The Phillies proved last year it’s possible to hit a bunch of homers in a joke of a home park and win the World Series—they finished second in the majors in homers—but the last team to reach the World Series the same season it led the majors in round-trippers was the 1995 Indians, who went 100-44 but lost to the pitching-rich Braves in the Fall Classic.

Three of the top five teams in homers began Wednesday with at least a share of first place (Yankees, Phillies and Rangers), but to watch the Sox is to think they’re the most likely candidate to knock one—or more—of those teams out of the playoffs. Beckett and Jon Lester, each of whom regularly dial it up to the mid-to-upper 90s, will front a rotation that could also feature John Smoltz, who is perhaps the best postseason pitcher of all-time, and Clay Buchholz, who is a man among boys at Triple-A.

Tim Wakefield is the farthest thing from a fireballer, but he’s also been the Sox’ most consistent starter this season and could provide a pretty drastic change of pace if he’s healthy and in the rotation in October. And that doesn’t even account for Brad Penny, who will probably be traded by the All-Star Break, or Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has been the Sox’ sixth-most effective starter thus far.

In defense of the Yankees, they attempted to add some power to the rotation, as well, by signing CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. But Burnett’s next playoff game will be his first, and his two games at Fenway this season (0-1 with a 12.91 ERA) don’t exactly engender confidence in his ability come October. Sabathia, meanwhile, has a 9.47 ERA with 17 walks in 19 innings in his last three postseason starts, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares tonight as he tries to help the Yankees avoid the sweep.

Of course, the additions of Sabathia and Burnett were all but negated when the new Yankee Stadium turned out to be a lot like the old Coors Field. It’s tough to remake oneself as a pitching-first team when pop flies land in the seats…which means the Yankees will find it pretty difficult to remake themselves come October as well.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.