Setting up Wagner to fail?

This could be a common pose for Billy Wagner as he adapts to setting up for the first time in 13 years. Photo from this site. 

Theo Epstein’s great chemistry experiment continued Tuesday, when the longest trade talks in the history of the game came to a conclusion with the Red Sox acquiring Billy Wagner from the Mets for two players to be named later.

That the Sox went ahead and completed the trade for Wagner even though Jonathan Papelbon originally thought it was a lousy idea was no surprise. Any doubt that the Sox don’t care what Papelbon says because he won’t be in Boston beyond 2011 should have disappeared yesterday, when Epstein and Terry Francona—two men who are almost always cautious with their words and complimentary of their players—basically called their closer an idiot, and not in the endearing Johnny Damon way.

Epstein said Papelbon’s comments about Wagner were misunderstood (a phrase echoed, not surprisingly, by Papelbon) and that Papelbon is “…not a Rhodes Scholar to begin with.”

Said Francona about Papelbon: “Not too much filter there.”

Must give some credit here to Bruce Allen, who wondered way back in April if Papelbon’s loose lips made him a bad fit for a team with an increasingly corporate demeanor. Daniel Bard’s struggles over the last few weeks probably assure Papelbon of remaining with the Sox next year, but I’d be surprised if the Sox don’t move him before his walk year in 2011.

One thing is certain: Barring a serious injury this season to Papelbon, his successor at closer won’t be Wagner, who is 38 and desperate to close for someone in 2010. The Sox are not expected to pick up Wagner’s $8 million option for next season, though I’d wager good money on feelings being bruised when the Sox insist on offering Wagner arbitration and therefore making teams reluctant to relinquish draft picks in signing Wagner, who will likely cost his new team two picks as a Type A free agent.

The Sox, of course, care as much about Wagner’s feelings come November as they do Papelbon’s feelings right now. This is about winning it all and adding some valuable and hard-throwing depth to an already solid bullpen. And I imagine the Sox already see this move as a success because it keeps Wagner away from potential playoff foes.

Which is good, because it’s hard to envision him contributing much more than that. Wagner is less than a year removed from Tommy John surgery, made just two appearances with the Mets before he was dealt and won’t be able to throw on consecutive days.

The biggest problem isn’t how Wagner will be accepted in the locker room but how he’ll accept his new role. Wagner, who ranks sixth all-time in saves with 385, has been a closer since 1997 and said Monday he didn’t expect to drop his no-trade protection and go to Boston because he was “…too old to set up.” Both parties, of course, are in full spin control mode now that Wagner is in Boston to not serve as a closer.

Wagner’s agent, the awesomely named Bean Stringfellow, said Wagner changed his mind about the trade because of his “competitive nature” and the chance to compete for a championship. And Terry Francona said Wagner won’t have Eric Gagne-like issues in the transition because he’s a situational lefty, not a set-up man. Well, unless that situation is getting the last out of the ninth inning, he’s still a set-up man.

In addition, Wagner doesn’t exactly possess a Papelbon-like playoff resume: He has an 8.71 ERA in 11 postseason games, including an 0-1 mark with a 16.88 ERA in the Mets’ seven-game loss to the Cardinals in the 2006 NLCS. He was so ineffective in that series—particularly in a non-save situation in Game Six, when he entered the ninth with a six-run lead a four-run lead and gave up two runs and allowed the tying run to reach the plate before he finally escaped the jam—that Willie Randolph gave the ball to Aaron Heilman, the human gas can, in a tie game in the top of the ninth of Game Seven instead of Wagner. Not quite the history you want out of a guy who will be setting…err, serving as a situational reliever in the playoffs, is it?

The Sox are banking their World Series hopes on a whole lot of people transitioning on the fly. Fitting five players into four spots (catcher, first base, third base and designated hitter) is working pretty well thus far, and Epstein’s long-term track record earns him the benefit of the doubt. But I still can’t shake the feeling that acquiring Wagner is the equivalent of hitting one too many times in a game of blackjack, and that he’ll be left to wonder this fall if Wagner would have done a lot more to help the Sox in somebody else’s uniform.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/jerrybeach.

Repeat after me: Roy Halladay will get traded, but not to the Red Sox

Acquiring a spare part like Brian Anderson might not leave Sox fans jumping for joy, but if history is any indication, they'll have to be satisfied with it anyway once the trading deadline arrives today. Photo from this site.

The Yankees are getting hotter and the Red Sox are getting colder (sorry, but needing a late comeback today to split a series with the Athletics, who stopped trying around March 31, does not reverse the post-All-Star Break slide) as the trade deadline approaches, so the first instinct is to say the Sox have to do something, anything, to keep up with the Yankees, especially with the Phillies no longer in the running for Roy Halladay.

And don’t let J.P. Ricciardi fool you: The Blue Jays will trade Halladay within the next 24 hours. I have no sources telling me that, or anything cool and juicy like that. But Ricciardi is like that owner in your fantasy league who tells everyone you better hurry up and make him an offer for his star player because he’s got big deals on the front burner, except he’s just bluffing like crazy in hopes someone actually believes him and overpays. When the rest of the league doesn’t panic and overpay and instead makes a more reasonable offer with someone else, Ricciardi—err, the owner in your fantasy league—is forced to dump his star for less than he would have liked.

Further complicating things for Ricciardi and the Jays is the fact Halladay’s trade value will never be higher than it is right at this moment. Just look at what the Rangers got for Mark Teixeira at the 2007 deadline, a year-and-a-half before he reached free agency, and what the Braves got for him last year

But when Halladay is traded, it won’t be to the Sox, even if they’ve gone from having way too much starting pitching to not enough over the last couple weeks. And it’s precisely because the Sox have stumbled badly this month and because they need Halladay that they won’t get him.

Oh sure, there have been plenty of rumors proclaiming the Sox the frontrunners for Halladay, and chairman Tom Werner told reporters in Cooperstown Sunday that Theo Epstein was “…burning the midnight oil” as the deadline approached. Of course, Werner also said the Sox didn’t want to part with any of their top prospects, which correlates with what John Henry Twittered following the Adam LaRoche trade.

Now is it possible the Sox are just bluffing when they declare off-limits the best of their young players? Of course. But to execute a midseason blockbuster—without an unhappy superstar forcing his way out of Boston in the process—would deviate drastically from Epstein’s m.o.

Again: The Sox are the only two-time champion in baseball this decade, run by a bulletproof general manager who stood pat three years ago, when the Sox were in first place and he had nowhere near the political capital he enjoys now. He maintained the status quo even though the Yankees were pursuing a difference-making bat, Bobby Abreu, whom they acquired for almost nothing.

The Yankees are probably the team most likely to land the prize of this trade deadline, as well, especially now with Chien-Ming Wang out for the season, NL castoff Sergio Mitre serving as their fifth starter and the suddenly surging Joba Chamberlain approaching his laughably secretive innings limit. Imagine how sturdy the Yankees would look in October with a top three of Halladay, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

But Epstein was willing to absorb the short-term hit to better position the Sox for long-term success in 2006. In addition, to trade for someone like Halladay would bolster the Sox in the short-term but also leave them with precious little young pitching depth. Beyond Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Justin Masterson, the Sox don’t have any impact arms ready to move into the rotation. Junichi Tazawa was just promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket, but the rest of the Sox’ most promising pitchers are at Double-A or below. So what do the Sox do if injuries strike over the next 15 months?

That said, dealing prospects for an impact hitter would make more sense, since the Sox have bucked conventional wisdom by having more luck developing pitchers than hitters. But a deal for the Padres’ Adrian Gonzalez and/or the Indians’ Victor Martinez is a lot less risky in the winter than in July.

This already seems like a team headed for some kind of overhaul after the season. Lowell and Jason Varitek are playing less frequently. Jason Bay is playing himself right out of a long-term deal. J.D. Drew is, well, J.D. Drew. Daisuke Matsuzaka is complaining about how the Sox have treated him, which seems to be a fine way to assure that the Sox have to give the Edgar Renteria/Julio Lugo treatment to someone who doesn’t actually play shortstop. Tim Wakefield’s not going to make a start on his 43rd birthday. The Sox’ starting shortstop, whomever he is on a given day, still would not start for the majority of big league teams.

And that’s just the guys who don’t fit into the long-term plan. David Ortiz learned this week that hitting .220 may be the least of his problems. Kevin Youkilis is hitting .251 since returning from the disabled list May 20.

Most notably, Jonathan Papelbon is allergic to the 1-2-3 inning, and Jon Couture made a pretty good case Wednesday why Papelbon may not even be among the top tier of closers anymore. For all his talk about wanting to inherit the title of best closer in baseball from Mariano Rivera, Papelbon has never seemed the type to remain durable or dominant well into his 30s. What if we’ve already seen the best of Papelbon and this recent ineffectiveness is the beginning of the end? Why would the Sox deal potential heir apparent Daniel Bard for Halladay?

A lot of difficult decisions will have to be made after the season. Why begin the process in midseason and try to make all the new pieces fit on the fly—and, perhaps in the process, further reduce the playing time of the captain and his unofficial first lieutenant—instead of during six or seven weeks in Ft. Myers? Especially when the diluted nature of the AL means even the flawed Sox, who still lead the wild card race, can still make quite a run at the AL pennant or beyond?

Assuming the current division leaders all hang on, the Sox would face the Angels in the AL Division Series, which, even in the Sox’ weakened state, is like earning a bye into the AL Championship Series. Figure the Yankees beat the Tigers, even if the decidedly underdog Tigers crushed the Yankees in the 2006 ALDS and the Yankees haven’t moved beyond the first round since 2004.

In the ALCS, would you want to bet against the playoff-hardened Sox—led by the 1-2 punch of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester atop the rotation—figuring out a way to beat the Yankees, even if they did field a rotation of Halladay-Sabathia-Burnett? That’s two ex-Blue Jays who have never made a postseason start and Sabathia, who has recorded an ERA of 9.47 the last two Octobers and is 0-2 with a 5.66 ERA against the Sox and Rays this season.

For all the internal reasons why it behooves the Sox to stand pat, none is as convincing as an external one: History indicates the teams that make the biggest moves at the trade deadline are not the ones that win the World Series. (More on that tomorrow)

More than two-thirds of the way into the season, a team—to borrow the most tired phrase of the decade—is what it is. Whomever is going to win the World Series is going to do it with a core it has been establishing since April, not players it’s adding this month. So as fun as it is to wonder how good the Sox would be with Halladay, Gonzalez or Martinez, the most exciting thing to happen today will probably involve adding another former big leaguer to Pawtucket’s outfield.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

When life gives you lemons, stop giving free agent closers big contracts

The Hornet: The bane of the Beach family in the late '70s...and the Blue Jays today. Photo from this site.

Ex-Red Sox reliever Alan Embree made a bit of baseball history Tuesday, when he earned the victory for the Rockies despite not throwing a pitch. Embree picked off Austin Kearns to end the top of the eighth and the Rockies broke a 4-4 tie in the bottom of the inning and won 5-4.

Embree is only the second pitcher since 1990 to win a game in which he did not throw a pitch and the first since B.J. Ryan, who pulled off the feat in 2003. Ironically, in that it’s not ironic at all, Ryan was in the news himself less than 24 hours later, when the Blue Jays released their Opening Day closer even though he’s got a year-and-a-half and $15 million left on his contract.

Ryan’s release is a fascinating case study in baseball perceptions and realities. The perception is that the Jays wasted $15 million with Wednesday’s transaction. Toronto Star columnist Richard Griffin goes so far as to write that Ryan’s release reflects so badly on Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi that it may hasten his own dismissal.

But the Jays had nothing to gain, financially or otherwise, by holding on to Ryan. Sure, it would make the organization look a little better if Ryan was able to regain some semblance of effectiveness for the remainder of the deal. Yet even if Ryan somehow recaptured his job as Jays closer next year, he still would have spent nearly half of his five-year deal—all of 2007, which he missed due to Tommy John surgery, and most of this year—not closing. If Ricciardi is to be judged on this deal, the verdict was already in: Flop.

In addition, whether he was awesome or awful in a Toronto uniform, that money—and every cent of the $47 million the Jays agreed to pay him over five years following the 2005 season—was gone the second Ryan put pen to paper. He won’t pitch for the Jays next season, but the $10 million he’ll receive will still count against the Jays’ budget.

Baseball contracts are like new cars: Once you make the purchase, there are no refunds, even though the vehicle begins to depreciate the moment its new owner puts the key into the ignition.

The player-as-a-car analogy is particularly appropriate for relief pitchers, who, as noted in last week’s appreciation of Mariano Rivera’s 500th career save, are more prone than most to overnight transformations into lemons. (Much like my parents’ old Hornet, which terrorized our family for a couple years in the late ‘70s and still makes my father mutter curse words under his breath, but I digress)

To invest long-term in a closer if he’s perceived as the last piece to a championship puzzle would appear to be a risk worth taking, except history suggests an imported closer almost never makes the difference between euphoria and disappointment. Only one World Series champion in the last 25 years has featured a closer it signed the winter before: The 2004 Red Sox. And you may recall that Keith Foulke—whom the Sox signed to a reasonable three-year deal worth just shy of $21 million prior to 2004—did a bang-up impersonation of a lemon for the subsequent two seasons.

On the same day that the Jays made Ryan the richest closer ever, the Mets made Billy Wagner the second-richest closer. The Mets got a little better return on their investment than the Jays, who recorded winning seasons in each of the last three years but never sniffed the playoffs, yet the end result was the same: More Tommy John surgeries than championships.

The Mets made it to Game Seven of the NLCS in 2006 and Wagner provided two-and-a-half pretty good years before his elbow began throbbing last summer. He underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will likely miss the entire 2009 season.

The Ryan and Wagner deals did more to drag down the market for free agent closers than the toxic economy. Francisco Rodriguez ended last season with 208 saves at just 26 years old and reportedly harbored hopes of a five-year, $75 million deal, but his lone offer was from the Mets at three years and $37 million. So the Mets are paying nearly $20 million this season to two pitchers whose entire job description is to get three outs. Wonder no more why they’re destined for fourth place.

And Brad Lidge, who converted all 48 save opportunities—41 in the regular season and seven in the playoffs—last season for the world champion Phillies, signed a three-year extension worth $37.5 million last season instead of testing the free agent waters.

All of which means Francisco Cordero’s status as the richest free agent closer ever (at least in terms of average annual salary) is pretty safe, and that the Reds should be getting nervous right about now. Cordero signed a four-year deal worth $46 million after the 2007 season and has 55 saves and a 2.79 ERA in 108 appearances for a team that is 16 games under .500 since his arrival.

Not all long-term deals for closers end badly. Rivera is in the midst of his third extension with the Yankees—this one a three-year deal worth $45 million that takes him through the end of 2010—and as someone who has penned more than one “Rivera is not what he used to be” pieces, let me say, I’m an idiot and he looks like he’ll be just as brilliant for the duration of this contract as he was the previous two.

It’s too early to declare Joe Nathan’s deal with the Twins—he was re-signed last year to a four-year, $47 million contract that takes him through 2011—a successful one, but his dominance with Minnesota (221 saves, a 1.78 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP since 2004) indicates he could follow the Rivera path as someone who becomes a closer in his late 20s and thrives throughout his 30s.

The moral of the story? If you’re going to go long-term with a closer, better to re-sign your own—better to keep investing in the family’s well-worn yet reliable used car, because you know what’s gone on under the hood. The car on someone else’s lot might look shinier and flashier, but who knows what havoc is bubbling beneath the surface?

It’ll be interesting to see if the Sox prefer to reinvest in Jonathan Papelbon, who will be eligible for free agency after the 2011 season, and if the market by then is conducive to Papelbon becoming the highest-paid closer ever. If that’s Papelbon’s goal, as he has alluded to previously, you can be pretty sure the Blue Jays won’t be the team to make his dreams come true.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

No one close to Rivera

Mariano Rivera isn't getting out of the way of the stampede of pitchers heading for the 500-save mark. Photo from this site.

That Mariano Rivera recorded his 500th save Sunday night (and his 501st Tuesday…apologies for the couple days off, my wife and I went on a brief anniversary trip) to a minimal amount of fanfare is mostly understandable.

The save is the most overrated stat in baseball, if not sports. Plenty of evidence suggests the outs before the ninth inning are the toughest of the game, and the definition of the save situation as well as the increasing specialization of the role—it’s a big deal when a closer comes on before the ninth inning, as Red Sox fans learned again last night—mean that only a minimal amount of adequacy is required to record the final three outs of the game.

The Indians nearly won the pennant in 2007 with Joe Borowski leading the league with 45 saves despite a 5.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He was out of baseball by the All-Star Break last summer. Francisco Rodriguez set the single-season save record last season, but he blew seven save chances—tied for most among the 15 closers with at least 30 saves—and ranked fifth among those hurlers in ERA (2.24), sixth in innings pitched (68 1/3), tied for sixth in opponents’ batting average (.216) and 12th in WHIP (1.29).

So it’s ironic, in the Alanis Morrissette way, that it’s quite difficult to build a lengthy career compiling the stat that is the easiest to compile. Rivera is just the second closer ever to reach 500 saves (he’s 71 behind Trevor Hoffman), and judging by the lack of candidates behind him, we might very well see the next 300-game winner—or Rivera collect his second career RBI—before the 500-save club swells to three.

At least Jamie Moyer (252 wins) is within shouting distance of 300 wins, even if he is 46 years old. But no active pitcher even has 400 saves. And of the 24 other players with at least 100 saves who are listed as active at baseball-reference.com, six are on the disabled list, three are pitching in independent ball, two are starting pitchers and one (Borowski) is retired.

Of the 12 remaining hurlers, Rodriguez, 27, would seem to have the best chance at reaching 500, but he’s not yet halfway there (228 saves) even after averaging 49 saves in his first four seasons as a closer. Beginning with this season, he’d need to average 35 saves per year for the next nine seasons to reach 500 during his age-35 season.

Huston Street (113 saves) is the youngest reliever on the list, but even at 25 he’s already lost his job at least twice and been traded once. Street has 19 saves so far this season, so if he were to finish with 40 saves, he’d still have to average 30 saves per season in order to record his 500th save—in 2022.

Jose Valverde (148 saves), Bobby Jenks (135 saves) and Jonathan Papelbon (132 saves) are the only other relievers under 30 with at least 100 saves. Counting this season, Valverde would have to average 30 saves a season for the next 12 seasons (taking him to his age 41 season in 2020) in order to reach 500. Papelbon makes no secret of his hopes to reach 500, but he and Jenks would each have to average 30 saves a season for the next 13 seasons to reach 500, which would take them through their age-40 seasons.

It’s not surprising that the shelf life is so short for a closer. In addition to the valid argument that any big league pitcher should be able to record three outs with a three-run lead, the human body isn’t built to throw a baseball, and it’s especially not built to do so at maximum effort thousands of times per season.

Most of the time, investing in a closer is a lot like investing in a demolition derby car. Teams get this, which is why the Diamondbacks traded Valverde after he led the NL in saves in 2006, why the Angels barely made an effort to re-sign Rodriguez and why the White Sox and Red Sox are going year-to-year with Jenks and Papelbon instead of signing them to long-term deals.

Still, the rapid turnover and attrition rate among closers as well as the watering down of the role and the save statistic should not minimize what Rivera has accomplished. He is the outlier among closers, someone who is not unfamiliar with the eighth inning—his 110 saves of more than three outs are exactly twice as many as Hoffman has recorded—and whose dominance extends well beyond the numbers beneath the “S” on the back of his baseball card.

Rivera’s regular season brilliance (he owns a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in addition to the 501 saves) is even more impressive considering he has produced the equivalent of a full season of postseason excellence: He’s 8-1 with a 0.77 ERA, 34 saves and a 0.75 WHIP in 76 playoff games.

He’s blown just four save opportunities in the postseason, and while those four were doozies (1997 ALDS Game Four, 2001 World Series Game Seven, 2004 ALCS Game Three and 2004 ALCS Game Four), and it’s a measure of how good he has been that those four hiccups were very likely the difference between four titles from 1996 through 2001—or seven crowns from 1996 through 2004.

By any reasonable standard, he’s the best closer in history, so perhaps his legacy will be further defined by the many, many years it’ll take before anyone follows him into the 500-save club.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

Said I wasn’t going to talk about the six-man rotation anymore, but I lied

Will Daisuke Matsuzaka revolutionize American baseball--by becoming the sixth member of the first six-man rotation? Photo from this site.

Turned out that Tuesday was indeed the day the Red Sox revealed their plans for John Smoltz. As expected, Smoltz will make another start for Triple-A Pawtucket tonight before entering the Sox’ rotation next Thursday against the Nationals.

Somewhat surprisingly, Terry Francona said the Sox could employ a six-man rotation for the time being. Not surprising was the careful way in which Francona delivered the message.

“It might be [a six-man rotation] for a time or two through,” Francona told reporters Tuesday. “It certainly could happen. I don’t know that we need to make our rotation out a week or two ahead of time.”

That’s Francona’s well-practiced way of saying you can ask all you want but he ain’t saying squat. But addressing the six-man rotation without actually committing to it is a typically savvy move by Francona and, by extension, Theo Epstein, as well as another example of the increased cautiousness with which Francona and Epstein have operated over the past few years (you can read all about that in the final two chapters of Fighting Words, aha, another plug for the book!).

Francona and Epstein learned long ago it doesn’t make sense to make any declarations in Boston, because to officially change one’s mind is to invite days and days of stories examining why the Sox changed their mind.

In fact, the most pivotal move of the Epstein/Francona era occurred without an official announcement. It was abundantly obvious that Jonathan Papelbon was the Sox’ new closer when he trotted out of the bullpen and preserved a one-run victory by retiring the Rangers in order on just 11 pitches in the Sox’ first save opportunity of the 2006 season. But Francona continued to insist during the subsequent series in Baltimore that the Sox wanted to find a way to return Keith Foulke to his old role.

“The aim is to get Foulke back as the guy where, every time you get to the ninth, you hand him the ball,” Francona said. “I really do want that to be where we end up. This isn’t the passing of the torch. I really would be happy if we can get to that.

“There might be times when the starter goes five, ‘Pap’ can pitch two innings and sort of force my hand to use Foulke in the save, which is good. I want to make sure that when we give him that responsibility, that he’s ready to tackle it, and we’re not hoping that it works or we need a lineout.”

Of course, none of that ever happened and Foulke had already passed the torch to Papelbon, who pitched at least two innings seven times that season but never appeared prior to the eighth inning. Foulke didn’t pitch the ninth inning in a save situation at all in 2006—in fact, he entered in the ninth inning just 10 times in 44 outings and did so with the Sox tied or trailing by three runs or less only three times—and didn’t record his next big league save until 2008, when he pitched for the Athletics following a one-year retirement.

Nor have Francona and Epstein said anything concrete about Nick Green overtaking Julio Lugo at shortstop. Then again, is there a need to confirm the obvious? Green has started 11 of the Sox’ last 15 games and the Sox are 27-9 when he starts at shortstop, as opposed to 10-13 with Lugo. And notice the familiar verbiage used by Francona when he was asked recently how he’s going to juggle Green and Lugo once nominal starter Jed Lowrie returns.

The intentional ambiguity of Tuesday, meanwhile, provides the Sox plenty of flexibility—to either scrap the six-man rotation before it ever actually begins, implement it indefinitely or just stick with it as the temporary solution envisioned by Francona.

“But that wouldn’t be the worst thing for a short period of time,” Francona said. “Again, not for a long period, because guys don’t pitch enough. With days off, the All-Star Break, you have too many good pitchers that won’t pitch enough. But for a short period of time, we could live with that, yeah.”

We’ll have an idea of what’s going to happen by Saturday morning. If Daisuke Matsuzaka pitches poorly again Friday against the Braves—and let’s be bluntly honest, that’s about as likely as a sellout that night at Fenway—then maybe Matsuzaka is either sidelined with a case of Oliver Perez-itis (apparently, it’s catching among Scott Boras clients) or sent to the minors and the six-man rotation never gets off the ground. It’s well worth noting that Smoltz’ first turn in the rotation will come on the day Matsuzaka would typically pitch.

But if Matsuzaka pitches well—or if the Sox can’t convince him to go on the DL, to the bullpen or to Pawtucket—then the six-man rotation is a reality, at least for a little while. And “a time or two through” takes the Sox to the week leading up to the All-Star Break, and if the Sox are doing well with it, why wouldn’t they maintain the unusual alignment until the Break or even beyond?

In addition, as noted below, the Sox’ rotation lines up prior to the All-Star Break in such a fashion that the club can plan for extra rest for the two starters most likely to be selected to the game—Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield—while also ensuring no. 1 starter Josh Beckett starts the first game after the Break with seven days of rest, a reasonable figure given the Sox’ All-Star Break actually lasts four days:

June 16: Wakefield
June 17: Penny
June 18: Lester
June 19: Matsuzaka
June 20: Beckett
June 21: Wakefield
June 22: OFF DAY
June 23: Penny
June 24: Lester
June 25: Smoltz
June 26: Beckett
June 27: Matsuzaka
June 28: Wakefield
June 29: Penny
June 30: Lester

July 1: Smoltz
July 2: OFF DAY
July 3: Beckett
July 4: Matsuzaka
July 5: Wakefield
July 6: Penny
July 7: Lester
July 8: Smoltz
July 9: Beckett
July 10: Matsuzaka
July 11: Wakefield
July 12: Penny

It gets a little more complicated after the Break, since the Sox play six games before their next off-day. To maintain the six-man rotation as constructed prior to the Break would mean Beckett would make his second start of the second half on six days rest. Unless, of course, the Sox keep Beckett on his regular turn at the expense of Matsuzaka:

July 17: Beckett
July 18: Smoltz
July 19: Lester
July 20: Penny
July 21: Wakefield
July 22: Beckett

I won’t bore you by projecting the rest of the season for the second straight day. But don’t be surprised if we’re in projection mode in late July because the six-man rotation is still working, even if nobody ever actually confirms the Sox are sticking with it.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

Leaning on Beckett good baseball business

Josh Beckett hasn't been taking it easy this year. Photo from this site.

Josh Beckett had perhaps his most impressive regular season start as a member of the Red Sox Wednesday, when he carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning and ended up allowing three unearned runs on two hits and two walks while whiffing nine over 7 2/3 innings in the Sox’ 10-5 win over the Tigers.

As fascinating as it was to watch Beckett flirt with the no-hitter, the most interesting thing about his performance was in the box score: One hundred nineteen pitches. It was the 10th straight start in which Beckett has exceeded 100 pitches and kept him on pace for the busiest season by a Sox starter since Terry Francona became manager in 2004.

Beckett has thrown at least 100 pitches in 10 of his 11 starts (he threw 93 in the opener against the Rays), has exceeded 110 pitches seven times and is averaging 112 pitches per start. If he maintains that kind of workload, he’ll almost certainly break the Francona-era records for most 100-pitch starts (26 by Curt Schilling in 2004), most 110-pitch starts (17 by Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2007) and highest average pitch count (109 by Matsuzaka in 2007). He’s less likely to match or exceed the records for highest pitch (133 by Schilling in 2006) or the most 120-pitch outings (six by Matsuzaka in 2007).

It says a lot about how baseball has evolved when two months of 100-pitch starts send a guy to Baseball-Reference.com for hours (or maybe it just says something about me). We’re so used to big red flashing lights accompanying the 100-pitch mark that the first instinct is to wonder if Beckett is being overworked.

But immersion in the numbers indicates Beckett’s workload is perfectly reasonable. He’s only averaging six more pitchers per start than Jon Lester and 12 more pitches per start than Tim Wakefield.

And Beckett—who, at 29, has pitched 200 innings just twice due to a variety of injuries but who hasn’t undergone an operation on his right arm—will never be better equipped to throw more than 100 pitches every five days than he is right now.

This is also the first time under Theo Epstein that the Sox have had an ace in the prime of his career. So why shouldn’t the Sox take advantage of the rarest commodity in baseball and allow their best pitcher—and the one best-prepared for a heavy workload—to pitch deeper into games than most, especially given the number of close games the Sox have played with Beckett on the mound? The game Wednesday marked only the third time this season Beckett exited with a lead or deficit of more than two runs.

In addition, it’s made sense for the Sox to go longer with Beckett in the three starts in which closer Jonathan Papelbon was not available. Papelbon threw 39 pitches Apr. 11, the day before Beckett threw 103 pitches against the Angels. Papelbon threw 32 pitches May 4, the day before Beckett threw 108 pitches against the Yankees. And Papelbon threw 35 pitches Tuesday.

What is interesting is to wonder how Beckett’s workload will affect the Sox’ plans after next season, when his contract expires (the Sox’ $10 million option for 2010 vests if he makes 28 starts this year). If Beckett remains healthy through 2010, he’ll be the unique no. 1 starting pitcher who hits free agency at or near his peak.

But the Sox aren’t in the business of paying for past performance, and he’s almost certainly gone if he’s looking for CC Sabathia-type money. Even if he’s not, the Sox—with an enviable stockpile of young arms throughout the minor league system—may decide they’ve already gotten the best years of Beckett’s career and that it’s better to reinvest elsewhere.

So from a pure business standpoint, it makes sense for the Sox to get all they can out of Beckett this year and next. The Indians and Brewers wrung all they could last year out of Sabathia, who threw 100 pitches 29 times in 35 starts for the two teams, exceeded 110 pitches 16 times, averaged 109 pitches per start and pitched on three days’ rest in each of his final three outings for the Brewers as he helped pitch them into the playoffs for the first time since 1982.

Sabathia profited, too, to the tune of the seven-year, $161 million deal he signed with the Yankees in December. The Yankees would seem to have plenty of reason to proceed cautiously with him, especially since he can opt out after three years and would be far less likely to do so if his arm explodes. But the Yankees have worked Sabathia as hard as the Indians and Brewers did last year: He has thrown at least 100 pitches in each of his last six starts, in all but two of his 11 starts overall and is averaging 110 pitches per outing.

Of course, why wouldn’t the Yankees want what they paid for out of their 28-year-old former Cy Young Award winner? The Mets played it safe with Johan Santana last year and missed the playoffs as a result: They lost three games in which Santana was pulled with the lead or the score tied after 105 pitches or less.

Perhaps the Sox and Beckett will spend the rest of this season and next season maximizing their relationship. Even if that’s not the Sox’ goal, it makes even more sense, from a purely baseball perspective, to rely as much as they can on him.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.