It ends in dust and disarray

There’s something universal about being told your services are no longer needed, even when the discarded employee is a Hall of Fame-bound pitcher with a nine-figure bank account. And so it was John Smoltz who last week provided the latest reminder that professional athletes are never as compelling as when they are in the twilight of their careers, when they come to realize a burning passion for the craft is no longer enough when they are at the mercy of factors beyond their control.

Smoltz’ resume and legendary competitiveness convinced the Red Sox he was going to come back from major shoulder surgery and contribute as a 42-year-old, but he was designated for assignment last Friday, less than 24 hours after he gave up eight runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Yankees. At least Smoltz was let down somewhat gently by Sox management, which gave Smoltz the conflicted “it’s not you, it’s us” treatment.

The coldly corporate bloodletting Friday was left to the Athletics, who released Jason Giambi hours before the Sox cut Smoltz. In the press release announcing the transaction, the Athletics made sure to point out that Giambi had the lowest batting average in the bigs and the American League’s fourth-lowest slugging percentage when he went on the disabled list in July. Presumably, the only reason the A’s didn’t mention Giambi’s bad breath is because there’s no statistical measure of halitosis. Stay classy, Billy Beane.

Smoltz’ dismissal was also far smoother than the one executed by the Braves June 3, when they released 300-game winner Tom Glavine—Smoltz’ longtime teammate and friend—just as he was ready to return to the Braves after rehabbing elbow and shoulder injuries.

But no matter the delivery, the message and the lesson is always the same. Regardless of how good a player is or was, he almost certainly will not have the chance to dictate how he exits the stage. For every player who walks off in triumphant fashion—John Elway, Barry Sanders, Mike Mussina—there are thousands, from mere mortals to iconic superstars, who have the decision made for them.

The player almost always disagrees with the decision, as he should. The self-confidence that makes these athletes the best in the world disappears long after their bat speed, fastball, arm strength or foot speed. There’s always something else to try or an adjustment to make that will allow a player to leave on his terms, even if he admits he can’t quite identify what those terms would be.

Presuming Curt Schilling does not re-scratch that itch, he’ll always be able to say he won a World Series game in his final big league appearance. Pretty awesome, yet not at all how he would have scripted it. Schilling signed a one-year deal with the Sox shortly after the 2007 World Series and spent several months in 2008 trying to rehabilitate his wrecked shoulder before he finally underwent another surgery, after which he worked out for a few more months in hopes of returning in 2009 before he finally retired in March, his ending penned for and not by him.

“We’re always wired to think that we can find a way—I can still do this somehow, someway,” David Cone said in April 2003. “Part of that wiring is what drives great athletes, keeps them going. We’re supposed to think that way, almost unrealistically, at some juncture.”

Cone, who isn’t going to the Hall of Fame but had one of the most memorable careers ever in winning five World Series rings and throwing a perfect game, spoke days after he was placed on the disabled list due to an arthritic right hip. He came back in late May, made one relief appearance for a Mets team headed for 95 losses and realized he was done the next morning when he had a hard time walking to the bathroom because of the hip pain.

At 40, there was no way to top what he’d already accomplished, but Cone still wanted to pen his own ending, as unattainable as it seemed and until it was physically impossible to do so. “The bottom line with me is I’m no different than any other athlete at the end of his career, searching for a perfect ending that may not come,” Cone said a month earlier.

The final imperfect ending is rarely the first for a player. Many members of the 2004 Red Sox lamented management’s refusal to keep the team completely intact. Along those lines, the release of Smoltz is just the first of many awkward exits on the horizon for these Sox. The acquisition of Victor Martinez means the beginning of the end for Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek, two irreplaceable parts of the 2007 title team but a pair of players who no longer fit into the Sox’ long- or short-term plans.

Tim Wakefield is beloved inside and outside the clubhouse, but after four straight injury-plagued seasons, the Sox are, at some point soon, going to decide that they can no longer go forward with him, even at $4 million per season. David Ortiz built up a lifetime of good will from 2003 through 2006, but that credit only goes so far when the batting average is hovering just above the Mendoza Line and the reputation is in tatters.

Most of the time, the decision made by management is the right one. To try and recapture the 2004 championship magic with a team that had eight everyday players, four starting pitchers, a closer and two top set-up men all on the wrong side of 30 wasn’t the smart thing to do from a baseball perspective and would have delayed the retooling that resulted in the 2007 championship.

It’s also hard to argue with the recent moves made by the Sox, Athletics and Braves. Maybe Smoltz and Giambi can still contribute in smaller roles, but it didn’t do the contending Sox nor the rebuilding Athletics any good to continue sending them out there as regulars. And Tommy Hanson, the 22-year-old who took the spot in the rotation once reserved for Glavine, is 7-2 with a 3.05 ERA in 12 starts.

Still, that aging players usually lose their jobs because of the ultimate bottom line, not some random figure devised by a bean counter 3,000 miles away, makes their fates no less poignant. We don’t know what it’s like to stand on a mound or in the batter’s box, never mind throw a fastball 95 miles an hour, hit a baseball 400 feet or celebrate a world championship. But to have someone attempting to extinguish the fire that still rages inside? That—that we all know about.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

Can Smoltz keep making history in his career's second act?

John Smoltz says hello to Boston tonight (well, actually, he'll do it in Washington). Photo from this site.

John Smoltz will join some rare and accomplished company when he throws his first pitch with the Red Sox tonight. (He’ll also prove me wrong, a decidedly less difficult feat) Smoltz is only the eighth player in history to play at least 20 years with one team and then join another. Remarkably, he’s the fourth player to bolt the Braves after at least two decades (the first three were Warren Spahn, Hank Aaron and Phil Niekro). And you thought Boston was the home of bad baseball breakups!

Six of the first seven are in the Hall of Fame, but only one of Smoltz’ predecessors played more two seasons after departing his longtime home. Ty Cobb hit .343 in two seasons with the Philadelphia Athletics but was just 27-for-51 in stolen base attempts. Aaron and Willie Mays, who were first and third on the all-time home run list for more than 30 years, each batted below .240 as they quietly closed out their careers with the Brewers and Mets, respectively.

Spahn (Mets and Giants in 1965) and Harmon Killebrew (Royals in 1975) played one season apiece while Phil Cavarreta, the lone non-Hall of Famer in this group, received a grand total of four at-bats in his second season with the White Sox in 1955.

Given his age (42) as well as his oft-repaired right shoulder, Smoltz is more likely to fashion a brief coda with the Sox than he is to follow in the footsteps of Niekro, who pitched for the Yankees in 1984 and 1985 and joined the 300-win club in his final start with the Yankees before he pitched for the Indians, Blue Jays and Braves over the subsequent two seasons.

Niekro went 50-44 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over his final four seasons, numbers that were below his career norms yet also essential to his Hall of Fame candidacy. With 210 wins, Smoltz is unlikely to reach 300, yet as the only player in history with at least 200 wins and 150 saves, as well as a history of excellence in October, his resume is already worthy of Cooperstown.

But Smoltz, whose competitive fire and athleticism are the stuff of legend, has made it clear over the past several weeks that he expects to thrive with the Sox and enjoy the kind of success he had the previous three-plus seasons with the Braves, for whom he went 47-26 with a 3.20 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.76 before he underwent shoulder surgery last June.

“It will be a success,” Smoltz told reporters yesterday. “I came back with a mindset that it’s not about stories or saying I can do it again. It’s about pitching and getting hitters out. The end result is going to be that, and in three, four or five starts from now, I think you’ll see why I feel the way I do.”

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

Said I wasn’t going to talk about the six-man rotation anymore, but I lied

Will Daisuke Matsuzaka revolutionize American baseball--by becoming the sixth member of the first six-man rotation? Photo from this site.

Turned out that Tuesday was indeed the day the Red Sox revealed their plans for John Smoltz. As expected, Smoltz will make another start for Triple-A Pawtucket tonight before entering the Sox’ rotation next Thursday against the Nationals.

Somewhat surprisingly, Terry Francona said the Sox could employ a six-man rotation for the time being. Not surprising was the careful way in which Francona delivered the message.

“It might be [a six-man rotation] for a time or two through,” Francona told reporters Tuesday. “It certainly could happen. I don’t know that we need to make our rotation out a week or two ahead of time.”

That’s Francona’s well-practiced way of saying you can ask all you want but he ain’t saying squat. But addressing the six-man rotation without actually committing to it is a typically savvy move by Francona and, by extension, Theo Epstein, as well as another example of the increased cautiousness with which Francona and Epstein have operated over the past few years (you can read all about that in the final two chapters of Fighting Words, aha, another plug for the book!).

Francona and Epstein learned long ago it doesn’t make sense to make any declarations in Boston, because to officially change one’s mind is to invite days and days of stories examining why the Sox changed their mind.

In fact, the most pivotal move of the Epstein/Francona era occurred without an official announcement. It was abundantly obvious that Jonathan Papelbon was the Sox’ new closer when he trotted out of the bullpen and preserved a one-run victory by retiring the Rangers in order on just 11 pitches in the Sox’ first save opportunity of the 2006 season. But Francona continued to insist during the subsequent series in Baltimore that the Sox wanted to find a way to return Keith Foulke to his old role.

“The aim is to get Foulke back as the guy where, every time you get to the ninth, you hand him the ball,” Francona said. “I really do want that to be where we end up. This isn’t the passing of the torch. I really would be happy if we can get to that.

“There might be times when the starter goes five, ‘Pap’ can pitch two innings and sort of force my hand to use Foulke in the save, which is good. I want to make sure that when we give him that responsibility, that he’s ready to tackle it, and we’re not hoping that it works or we need a lineout.”

Of course, none of that ever happened and Foulke had already passed the torch to Papelbon, who pitched at least two innings seven times that season but never appeared prior to the eighth inning. Foulke didn’t pitch the ninth inning in a save situation at all in 2006—in fact, he entered in the ninth inning just 10 times in 44 outings and did so with the Sox tied or trailing by three runs or less only three times—and didn’t record his next big league save until 2008, when he pitched for the Athletics following a one-year retirement.

Nor have Francona and Epstein said anything concrete about Nick Green overtaking Julio Lugo at shortstop. Then again, is there a need to confirm the obvious? Green has started 11 of the Sox’ last 15 games and the Sox are 27-9 when he starts at shortstop, as opposed to 10-13 with Lugo. And notice the familiar verbiage used by Francona when he was asked recently how he’s going to juggle Green and Lugo once nominal starter Jed Lowrie returns.

The intentional ambiguity of Tuesday, meanwhile, provides the Sox plenty of flexibility—to either scrap the six-man rotation before it ever actually begins, implement it indefinitely or just stick with it as the temporary solution envisioned by Francona.

“But that wouldn’t be the worst thing for a short period of time,” Francona said. “Again, not for a long period, because guys don’t pitch enough. With days off, the All-Star Break, you have too many good pitchers that won’t pitch enough. But for a short period of time, we could live with that, yeah.”

We’ll have an idea of what’s going to happen by Saturday morning. If Daisuke Matsuzaka pitches poorly again Friday against the Braves—and let’s be bluntly honest, that’s about as likely as a sellout that night at Fenway—then maybe Matsuzaka is either sidelined with a case of Oliver Perez-itis (apparently, it’s catching among Scott Boras clients) or sent to the minors and the six-man rotation never gets off the ground. It’s well worth noting that Smoltz’ first turn in the rotation will come on the day Matsuzaka would typically pitch.

But if Matsuzaka pitches well—or if the Sox can’t convince him to go on the DL, to the bullpen or to Pawtucket—then the six-man rotation is a reality, at least for a little while. And “a time or two through” takes the Sox to the week leading up to the All-Star Break, and if the Sox are doing well with it, why wouldn’t they maintain the unusual alignment until the Break or even beyond?

In addition, as noted below, the Sox’ rotation lines up prior to the All-Star Break in such a fashion that the club can plan for extra rest for the two starters most likely to be selected to the game—Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield—while also ensuring no. 1 starter Josh Beckett starts the first game after the Break with seven days of rest, a reasonable figure given the Sox’ All-Star Break actually lasts four days:

June 16: Wakefield
June 17: Penny
June 18: Lester
June 19: Matsuzaka
June 20: Beckett
June 21: Wakefield
June 22: OFF DAY
June 23: Penny
June 24: Lester
June 25: Smoltz
June 26: Beckett
June 27: Matsuzaka
June 28: Wakefield
June 29: Penny
June 30: Lester

July 1: Smoltz
July 2: OFF DAY
July 3: Beckett
July 4: Matsuzaka
July 5: Wakefield
July 6: Penny
July 7: Lester
July 8: Smoltz
July 9: Beckett
July 10: Matsuzaka
July 11: Wakefield
July 12: Penny

It gets a little more complicated after the Break, since the Sox play six games before their next off-day. To maintain the six-man rotation as constructed prior to the Break would mean Beckett would make his second start of the second half on six days rest. Unless, of course, the Sox keep Beckett on his regular turn at the expense of Matsuzaka:

July 17: Beckett
July 18: Smoltz
July 19: Lester
July 20: Penny
July 21: Wakefield
July 22: Beckett

I won’t bore you by projecting the rest of the season for the second straight day. But don’t be surprised if we’re in projection mode in late July because the six-man rotation is still working, even if nobody ever actually confirms the Sox are sticking with it.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

Free Clay Buchholz!

"FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, LET THE BOY PITCH IN YOUR HOUSE!!" Photo from this site.

I imagine this is a bit of East Coast hyperbole that could be disproved by someone with a couple hours and Baseball-Reference.com at his/her disposal, but here goes: Since Major League Baseball expanded to 30 teams, I cannot imagine there has ever been a team with more starting pitching depth than the Red Sox have right now.

I mean, Clay Buchholz just carried a perfect game into the ninth inning Monday, and he’s no better than eighth on the Sox’ depth chart. Justin Masterson certainly ranks ahead of him, since he’s in the majors, and the Sox didn’t sign John Smoltz last winter so that they could send him to the bullpen or Pawtucket once his rehab assignment ends (he made his second minor league start last night and is on schedule to debut for the Sox in mid-June).

Buchholz is 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA and a 49/12 K/BB ratio in 48 1/3 innings at Pawtucket this year and 27-12 with a 2.29 ERA and a 466/107 K/BB ratio in 392 1/3 innings overall as a minor leaguer since he signed with the Sox in 2005. At Pawtucket alone, he is 8-5 with a 2.15 ERA and a 147/42 K/BB ratio in 130 1/3 innings over 25 starts.

Nick Cafardo made a good point in his Sunday notes May 17, when he wrote that more development wasn’t a bad thing for Buchholz since he was just approaching the 500 professional innings that big league teams used to think pitchers needed before they were ready for the majors. (He’s actually at 501 after Monday) Curt Schilling had 890 1/3 innings under his belt—including 725 1/3 at the minor league level—before his first full season with the Phillies in 1992.

But still…Buchholz seems pretty darn developed right now. My guess is the Sox know Buchholz is ready to contribute at the big league level, but that they don’t mind being extra careful in light of his struggles last year.

In addition, the Brad Penny experiment has gone much better than most of us anticipated. Bob Ryan said yesterday he thinks the Sox are going to deal Penny before the trading deadline, but that still leaves them with six starters for five spots if Smoltz returns. And if Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield are all healthy, then that would, presumably, leave Buchholz in Pawtucket.

Might it be time for the Sox to go with the six-man rotation, as it appeared they might be ready to do when they re-signed Schilling in November 2007? Like then, they’ve got the optimal staff with which to try it: A pair of 40-somethings in Smoltz and Wakefield, a hurler who is used to pitching once a week in Matsuzaka and a couple of young homegrown starters whose innings the Sox would like an excuse to limit in Lester and Buchholz.

Theo Epstein said on the conference call announcing the return of Schilling that the Sox had pondered the possibility of a six-man rotation but that he didn’t want to commit to it because those things have a way of not working themselves out. And that’s exactly what happened: Schilling never threw another pitch and Sox starters were so decimated by injuries that the likes of David Pauley and Charlie Zink made starts for Boston last year.

If the Sox have better luck this season in the injury department, maybe they can unofficially go with the six-man rotation by handing every starter some “structured time off,” as Epstein called it in November ‘07. Conceivably, the Sox could give a different starter two weeks off beginning July 1—these would be like furloughs, except, you know, they’d get paid—and run through the rotation by the end of the regular season.

And with September roster expansion, the Sox would only have to come up with a DL-worthy ailment for four pitchers. Or maybe only three, since the All-Star Break provides a chance to give someone 10 days off anyway. Or maybe only one, since Lester and Buchholz can still be optioned out.

I’m just thinking out loud. Such suggestions are easier made than implemented, especially when it comes to something as radical as changing the big league rotation as we know it. But geez, somebody’s got to do something to get Buchholz up to the majors before he makes a run at Schilling’s minor league innings total, right?

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.

History not on the side of Smoltz, Penny

Will John Smoltz beat the odds and become the low-risk, high-reward starter that pays off? Photo from The Boston Globe.

The Red Sox have shut down John Smoltz for up to two weeks, though they say he isn’t hurt. But let’s face it, rarely is someone shut down when he isn’t hurt, especially when that someone is 41 years old, has thrown 3,395 big league innings, has undergone four elbow surgeries and is less than a year removed from major surgery on his right shoulder.

It’s understandable that the Sox would paint this delay in the most optimistic terms possible (it’s also consistent with their philosophies since 2005, as you can read about in Chapter 9 of Fighting Words, coming soon to a bookshelf near you!). But I also recall how optimistic the Sox seemed about Wade Miller in 2005, when he first missed a start in July with a sore shoulder and then went on the disabled list in August with tendinitis that Terry Francona said was not an injury.

Miller didn’t throw a ball for 15 days, during which he had two throwing sessions postponed, and made two minor league rehab starts but eventually underwent surgery on his labrum. He returned to the big leagues with the Cubs in 2006 but hasn’t come close to regaining his past form and is currently pitching for the Blue Jays’ Triple-A affiliate.

I bring up Miller not out of some odd nostalgia for the summer of 2005 (man, remember when Craig Hansen was The Next Big Thing?), but because he was the first injured starting pitcher on whom Theo Epstein made a low-risk, high-reward investment.

Unfortunately for the Sox, the next one to pay off will be the first. The Sox got just 23 starts combined out of Miller (16 starts) and 2008 fliers Bartolo Colon (seven starts) and Curt Schilling (no starts).

Epstein tried again last winter by signing Smoltz and Brad Penny, who was hampered by a bad shoulder last year with the Dodgers and joined the Sox shortly before Smoltz was brought into the fold. But while Smoltz works in Florida, Penny has a 8.66 ERA and nearly twice as many walks (11) as strikeouts (six) in four starts. (He’s also 2-0)

If missing on a bunch of rehabbing veterans is the worst thing about Epstein's resume, well, it’s a pretty damn good resume. And if a general manager is going to miss, better to do so on incentive-laden one-year deals than on the four- and five-year deals that really hamstring a team’s financial flexibility.

Nor did the Sox have outsized expectations for Miller, Colon, Schilling, Smoltz or Penny. The hurlers were signed with the hope they could provide high-upside depth, to safeguard the Sox against the injuries that inevitably deplete a rotation and, in the case of everyone except Miller, to buy the club more time to develop its homegrown starters on the farm.

Only Penny began the season in the big league rotation, though the Sox didn’t expect Schilling to be on the shelf come April when they re-signed him in November 2007. But even that deal was executed with the belief that Schilling was more likely to pitch 120 innings than 180 innings.

Even though Miller, Colon and Schilling didn’t work out, it’s easy to understand why Epstein would go to the well again with Penny and Smoltz this year. The Sox last year scrambled for starting pitching a lot more than their 95 wins would indicate. Every member of the projected Opening Day rotation hit the disabled list aside from Jon Lester, who emerged as an ace-quality starter (16-6 with a 3.21 ERA) in his first full big league season. In addition, Clay Buchholz, he of the no-hitter in his second big league start, had a brutal season that underscored the Sox’ desire to proceed as cautiously as possible with their young pitchers.

The Sox ended up receiving the equivalent of a season’s worth of starts from Colon, rookie Justin Masterson (who opened the season in Double-A but made eight starts for the Sox before finishing the season in the bullpen), post-trading deadline acquisition Paul Byrd (eight starts), organizational arms David Pauley (two starts) and Charlie Zink (one start) and top prospect Michael Bowden (one start). Those six hurlers combined to record a 5.00 ERA in 163 2/3 innings. Only five pitchers of the 40 American League pitchers who qualified for the ERA title posted an ERA higher than 5.00 last year.

So even though history suggests Smoltz and Penny will spend more time on the shelf than on the field, why not take a flier on a pair of veterans who could provide far more upside than last year’s fill-ins—or, for that matter, Miller, Colon or Schilling?

Smoltz has the greatest postseason resume ever (15-4, 2.67 ERA in 207 innings), is almost surely bound for the Hall of Fame, led the NL in wins and starts at age 39 three years ago and struck out 36 batters in 28 innings even as his shoulder throbbed last year. And Penny won 16 games in consecutive seasons in 2006-07, started the All-Star Game for the NL in ’06 and is still only 30 years old.

They were worthy risks, and risks Epstein will likely continue to take in future winters. But as for this year, don’t be surprised if Penny is replaced by Buchholz by the end of the month—or if the closest Smoltz comes to pitching for the Red Sox is on the back fields in Fort Myers.

Email Jerry at jbeach73@gmail.com.